Search results for "Risk management tools"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Economic performance and risk of farming systems specialized in perennial crops: An analysis of Italian hazelnut production
2019
Abstract Assessing farm profitability and economic risk is important to support farmers' decisions. Several factors affect yields and product prices, in turn influencing farmers' income level and economic risk. However, the literature has often neglected to explicitly account for the role of product quality. This is particularly important for crops such as hazelnut because farmers' prices vary according to the quality of the harvested product. Furthermore, it seems fundamental to disentangle the role of parameters influencing farm results, noticeably yield, product price and quality. This is because farmers select their risk management tools to satisfy their needs, but these are often suita…
Integrating risk management tools for regional forest planning: an interactive multiobjective value-at-risk approach
2018
In this paper, we present an approach employing multiobjective optimization to support decision making in forest management planning under risk. The primary objectives are biodiversity and timber cash flow, evaluated from two perspectives: the expected value and the value-at-risk (VaR). In addition, the risk level for both the timber cash flow and biodiversity values are included as objectives. With our approach, we highlight the trade-off between the expected value and the VaR, as well as between the VaRs of the two objectives of interest. We employ an interactive method in which a decision maker iteratively provides preference information to find the most preferred management plan and le…
A Brief History of Sexual Offender Risk Assessment
2016
The assessment of risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators has come a long way since the early 1900s. From risk estimations based on clinical observation and environmental changes in the 1920s, anthropological and longitudinal studies of juvenile offenders in the 1930s, the examination of psychoneurotic patients in the 1940s to the application of actuarial prediction to clinical assessment in the 1950s, researchers and practitioners have sought to identify valid and reliable measures of recidivism risk in sexual offenders. The emphasis in risk prediction slowly changed following Meehl’s (1954) seminal contributions to the clinical-statistical debate which introduced t…
Comparison of three methods for evaluation of work postures in a truck assembly plant
2017
International audience; This study compared the results of three risk assessment tools (self-reported questionnaire, observational tool, direct measurement method) for the upper limbs and back in a truck assembly plant at two cycle times (11 and 8 min). The weighted Kappa factor showed fair agreement between the observational and direct measurement method for the arm (0.39) and back (0.47). The weighted Kappa factor for these methods was poor for the neck (0) and wrist (0) but the observed proportional agreement (P-o) was 0.78 for the neck and 0.83 for the wrist. The weighted Kappa factor between questionnaire and direct measurement showed poor or slight agreement (0) for different body seg…
Negotiations with a risk assessment tool: Standardized decision-making in the United States and the deprofessionalization thesis
2017
AbstractThis article focuses on the challenges of decision-making in child protection. Comparative studies show that standardized risk assessment tools predict future maltreatment more accurately than interpretative assessment. Despite a long tradition of research on statistical decision-making, few studies deal with how such instruments are used and integrated into professional decision-making practice, and – from a transnational perspective – how specific national regulations influence such instruments and decision-making at street level. The article discusses concerns about the fact that such classification systems might have a negative impact on professional discretion. Based on a mater…
Components of software development risk: how to address them? A project manager survey
2000
Software risk management can be defined as an attempt to formalize risk oriented correlates of development success into a readily applicable set of principles and practices. By using a survey instrument we investigate this claim further. The investigation addresses the following questions: 1) What are the components of software development risk? 2) how does risk management mitigate risk components, and 3) what environmental factors if any influence them? Using principal component analysis we identify six software risk components: 1) scheduling and timing risks, 2) functionality risks, 3) subcontracting risks, 4) requirements management, 5) resource usage and performance risks, and 6) person…
A critical review on supply chain risk – Definition, measure and modeling
2015
Abstract Economic systems are increasingly prone to complexity and uncertainty. Therefore, making well-informed decisions requires risk analysis, control and mitigation. In some areas such as finance, insurance, crisis management and health care, the importance of considering risk is largely acknowledged and well-elaborated, yet rather heterogeneous concepts and approaches for risk management have been developed. The increased frequency and the severe consequences of past supply chain disruptions have resulted in an increasing interest in risk. This development has led to the adoption of the risk concepts, terminologies and methods from related fields. In this paper, existing approaches for…
The Predictive Properties of Psychiatric Diagnoses, Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Risk Change Assessed by the VRS-SO in Forensically Admitted and Released…
2020
Psychiatric diagnoses, static risk factors and criminogenic needs at time of admission and release were examined in a mentally ill sample of psychiatrically detained sexual offenders. Although clinically found to be at low or even very low risk at discharge, 12% reoffended sexually over an average follow up of 7 years. Psychotic disorders were present in only 5% of offenders, whereas 93% had a personality disorder diagnosis and 76%, a paraphilic disorder diagnosis. Only exhibitionism and alcohol misuse were associated with relapse. Static risk factors captured by the Static-99 also did not significantly predict recidivism; however, the VRS-SO – a structured risk assessment tool that assesse…